Mexico Nearshoring: How It’s Reshaping North American Logistics in 2026

Evan Baschko
Dec 12
5 min read

Trucks at a toll booth in a busy highway setting at sunset. Blue digital lines overlay the scene, suggesting technology or data flow.

Nearshoring has become the defining structural shift of North American logistics heading into 2026. As global supply chains recalibrate after years of volatility, Mexico has emerged as a central manufacturing and distribution hub. U.S. imports from Mexico increased by 7.4 percent in 2025, evidence of a long-term realignment in freight flows.

This shift brings opportunity but also new pressures on capacity, labor, infrastructure and cost visibility. Mexico’s growing role is already reshaping freight strategies across the region, requiring transportation leaders to rethink capacity planning, carrier alignment and cost control in 2026.

Mexico’s Expanding Role in North American Manufacturing

Mexico’s manufacturing sector expanded in 2025, led by automotive, electronics, medical devices and consumer goods. More companies shifted sourcing from Asia to reduce lead times and strengthen resilience. Several structural advantages continue to support this shift:

· Proximity to U.S. markets, enabling shorter transit times and lower transportation costs

· A large, growing industrial labor pool

· Established manufacturing and logistics hubs across Monterrey, Guadalajara, Saltillo, Querétaro and key border regions

· Trade alignment under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico’s manufacturing sector increased by roughly 8.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, continuing the momentum behind nearshoring activity. By the third quarter, total FDI had reached a record $40.9 billion, a 15 percent year-over-year rise, signaling sustained confidence in Mexico as a production base for North American markets. Manufacturing captured the largest share of investment at approximately 37 percent, with particularly strong commitments in electronics, industrial equipment and other supply chain–critical categories.

Pressure on Cross-Border Freight Networks

As sourcing shifts south, cross-border freight corridors, especially Laredo, El Paso, Otay Mesa and Nogales, are experiencing unprecedented volume and complexity. The U.S.–Mexico corridor became one of the busiest trade lanes in 2025, reshaping network design for shippers who once relied heavily on Asia–West Coast flows. But the rapid increase also brings friction.

Border Delays Rising

In 2025, intermittent protests and customs staffing shortages led to delays ranging from 18 to 36 hours, creating ripple effects across carrier schedules and detention-based accessorials. Unpredictable clearance times make route planning and appointment scheduling significantly more difficult, especially for high-velocity operations.

Security and Compliance Risks

Security issues, including cargo theft hotspots and cartel-related risk zones, continue to affect route planning and carrier selection. While not universal, these risks require enhanced vetting and often limit service options in specific regions.

Driver Shortages on Both Sides of the Border

Mexico’s driver shortage reached an estimated 28,000 positions in 2025, with retention challenges similar to the U.S. market. Reduced driver availability contributes to erratic capacity and rate fluctuations on both sides of the border.

Why Nearshoring Is Changing Transportation Strategy

Nearshoring is not just shifting production, it is reshaping transportation networks. As freight moves from long-haul ocean lanes to shorter, more variable cross-border routes, shippers face new demands around capacity planning, mode selection and carrier strategy.

More Frequent, Smaller Shipments

Instead of containerized Asia imports, nearshoring often produces:

· higher shipment frequency

· shorter transit distances

· more less than truckload (LTL) and cross-border truckload activity

· faster replenishment cycles

This shifts the planning burden to transportation functions that must maintain consistent capacity without relying on long lead-time forecasting models.

Increased Demand for Bilingual and Integrated TMS Solutions

Shippers need customs visibility, bilingual documentation support and synchronized EDI workflows across carriers and brokers. Digital integration is accelerating rapidly, global EDI software spend grew nearly 9.5 percent in 2025 while API-enabled customs brokers in the U.S. are projected to expand at more than 11 percent annually. At the same time, no single carrier can reliably manage both sides of the border, leading shippers to blend U.S. carriers, Mexican carriers and CTPAT-certified partners to maintain consistent cross-border service.

Cross-Border Costs and Carrier Complexity Are Increasing

Nearshoring is reshaping cost and capacity patterns across major U.S.–Mexico corridors. Carriers applied detention, layover and other fees more aggressively in 2025, some surcharge programs rising 20–30 percent, while commercial truck entries increased 4.2 percent, adding volume and pressure at key crossings. In this environment, accessorials accumulate quickly and are easy to overlook without strong audit controls.

Carrier networks are realigning as providers shift capacity toward high-volume gateways in Texas, California and Arizona leaving lower-volume corridors with reduced service. These adjustments reflect widening freight imbalances: the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico reached $171.5 billion in 2024, with northbound volumes often two to four times higher than southbound, forcing equipment repositioning and driving rate volatility. Southbound demand is increasing, driven by expanding retail in Central Mexico and nearshoring.

As these patterns accelerate, managing accessorials and carrier selection becomes critical to cost and service performance, and detention is increasingly in focus across the industry.

Strategic Recommendations for 2026

Drawing from ITS Traffic Systems’ (ITS) insights and past freight cycles, several strategies can help shippers navigate nearshoring’s impacts.

1. Build Redundancy into Carrier and Route Strategy

Avoid overreliance on a single port of entry or provider. Prior disruptions at Laredo demonstrate how brittle single-lane strategies can be.

2. Strengthen Cross-Border Visibility Tools

Real-time shipment tracking, automated document validation and exception alerts reduce the impact of long border wait times.

3. Use Freight Audit and Analytics to Monitor Cost Patterns

Cross-border billing is complex and auditing helps:

· monitor variance in accessorials

· validate customs-related surcharges

· avoid paying inflated detention charges

4. Explore Bonded Warehouse and Buffer Strategies

Staging inventory near the border reduces exposure to unpredictable clearance times. Bonded warehouse use is rising as nearshoring increases demand for border-adjacent storage and new 2025 customs rules accelerate digitalization and tighter compliance.

Nearshoring is Here to Stay: Strategy Must Catch Up

Nearshoring is reshaping freight flows across North America faster than many organizations anticipated. While it offers cost, proximity and resiliency advantages, it also introduces new complexities in capacity management, carrier strategy, risk mitigation and cost visibility.

Shippers that blend data-driven planning, cross-border expertise and strategic carrier partnerships will be best positioned to capture the benefits of nearshoring without unnecessary volatility or disruption. ITS supports these efforts through freight audit, analytics and strategic consulting designed for evolving North American networks.

Sources:

ITS
Traffic
Systems, Inc.

Mexico Nearshoring: How It’s Reshaping North American Logistics in 2026

Mexico’s Expanding Role in North American Manufacturing